Introduction To Sports Gambling With Good JuJu
The initial bankroll is established. How do I keep the gravy train rolling?
The goal of level 1 betting is to find advantage plays. Within sports gambling, we are looking for positive expected value (+ev for short). If you manage to bet something at +100, and next thing you know, no one can bet this for less than -120, you just achieved +ev on that bet. But how do we get this? At level one, there are two ways:
Taking advantage of the marketing offers put out by the books. If you bet a -120, and apply a 20% boost, you now have a +100 wager that is unavailable for cheaper than -120.
Arbitrage Betting. Often times, books will be so mis-aligned on a bet, that you can bet the “yes” at one book and the “no” at another book with no chance of losing money in either event.
Before discussing each of these routes, some general advice that is important to note.
You want to focus your bets on straight wagers as much as possible
Parlays are a bad idea. Can you determine what the fair odds of three different teams all winning a game are at their various price points are? It is possible, but extremely likely in most scenarios that you are costing yourself more money than just placing these bets as straight wagers.
Same Game Parlays need to be avoided like the plague. There is a reason they are in every marketing campaign from every recreational sportsbook. They build in a LOT of hidden vigorish to these bets and getting fair odds on them is near impossible. They are a scam.
But Parlays and Same Game Scams are fun! I agree! The sportsbooks love them so much, they constantly throw promotional offers at you to hook you on them. When properly applied, these boosts can be a lot of fun and profitable. When improperly applied, they are going to cost you money long-term, even with a boost.
Focus on two-way markets. If the sportsbook doesn’t have to offer a “no” bet, then they can more easily disguise how much vigorish they are attaching to the line.
As an example, I recently saw Jaylen Warren’s O/U rushing + receiving line at o/u49.5, with the over priced at -129. When I looked to see his alt line for 50+ for this same market, the price was -215.
Reminder, getting better odds than the fair/true odds for a wager is the goal. If you get better than that, you will win long term. If you don’t, you will lose.