Introduction To Sports Gambling With Good JuJu
Introduction To Sports Gambling With Good JuJu

Lesson 1: Preamble

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What are the goals here? 1) Learn HOW to sports bet, 2) Turn negative ROI, positive

  • This will be reiterated throughout. You can’t beat the books with your eyes. No one can. 

  • Before jumping in, it’s helpful to understand what the levels of profitable sports betting are. If you are a net-losing bettor, you aren’t level one yet. To better understand what the levels of sports betting profitability are and how to progress through them, have a look over this article:

  • Information and data is everything in sports betting. What data is good, whose knowledge is correct, can be tricky. To build knowledge, move away from consuming mainstream, topline information and focus instead on consuming sports gambling content that matches interests. 

    • These aren’t just valuable as sources of information for wagers, consuming sports media through the lens of sports gambling helps to better understand how sports gambling markets work overall.

      • VSiN is my go-to background noise

    • Additionally, utilize online resources for free information

      • Create a twitter account solely for the purpose of sports gambling content. Use this to start building out a network of sources with reliable information. More on that below. 

      • Start digesting information from sources dedicated to this type of content: WagerTalk, VSIN, Action Network, and others all have information available for free via their websites.

    • Learn to love podcasts. In addition to Gambling With Good JuJu, there are other gambling podcasts that talk general approaches to sports gambling

      • Former guests of Gambling With Good JuJu with recommended podcasts include: Be Better Bettors (@spanky on Twitter) and The Risk Takers Podcast (@TheRiskTakersPodcast on YouTube). Outside our guests, Bet The Process is another interesting podcast with good information.

      • There are LOTS of podcasts giving out insights into specific sports. These are great for building your knowledge of the sport, but do not rely on any one source as gospel.

        • Gambling With Good JuJu Guests with these podcasts: Coast To Coast Hoops with Greg Peterson (@GUnit_81 on Twitter), Shoulda Bet More (@NotTheeWillHill on Twitter), Chicken Dinner Podcast (@chickenxdinner on Twitter). For NFL, check out The Simple Handicap with Adam Chernoff. 

      • YouTube is another fantastic source for information. Guests of Gambling With Good JuJu putting out reliable, quality content include @TheRiskTakersPodcast and @BillyC24

  • You have to have a bankroll and be consistently betting the same amount (or a system that responsibly differentiates bet amount). Don’t start without a bankroll. It doesn’t have to be much. You can start with $50 if that is all you have!

    • That said, the larger your initial stake is, the quicker you are able to build your bankroll

    • We will cover bankroll management in further detail later

  • Regulated sports books are in user acquisition mode. Therefore, they are giving away a lot of money to obtain customers

    • Fanduel, Draftkings, Caesars, BetMGM, BetRivers, ESPNBet, Fanatics, Hard Rock, Circa are all available to users in Illinois.

    • There are also DFS books such as PrizePicks, Underdog, and others which are very profitable as well. As you start to look for additional edges once comfortable with the regulated sportsbooks, there are services to help you maximize your profits on DFS books. For this, we focus on Sportsbooks.

  • Most sportsbooks are NOT great at setting lines. These are “recreational” books. They target users via enticing offers and rewards, then rely on bettors giving back that money (plus much more) long-term. If they identify someone winning long-term, they simply take away their promotions and limit their ability to bet.

    • Most legal books operate this way in the US: FD, DK, MGM, CZR, BetRivers, ESPN, Hard Rock

    • Circa is the only major sharp book in Illinois. They accept bets from everyone, offer much lower vigorish, and have extremely accurate lines (because they accept bets from sharp bettors)

      • A few others are starting to pop up. By and large, there is no reason to bet into these books as a level one or level two bettor except when arbitrage betting (see the levels of sports bettors article above for more details on Level one and Level two)

  • Ultimately you want to be on EVERY sportsbook. You might find a -115 on Fanduel, a -110 on DK and a -105 on Caesars for a particular wager. The difference between -115 and -105 is enormous over a large enough sample.

  • It is essential to always know what the Vigorish is on any bet you make. What is the Vigorish? It’s the percentage deducted from a gambler's winnings by the sportsbook. 

    • If you bet a -110 for $10 ten times, and go 5-5, you will lose $5.55. That is the cost of the vigorish (the Vig).

  • At the end of the day, all that really matters is getting better odds than the fair/true odds for a wager. Whatever the true probability of that bet is. If you get better than that, you will win long term. If you don’t, you will lose.